Population Forecasting (POP4)

Planning for future school places isn't about having a crystal ball; it's about using One Population Forecasting.

Accurate predictions

Growing pressure on school places means a greater need for highly accurate predictions of the make-up and location of future school-age populations.

Simplified processes, reduced costs

The complex and time-consuming process of using historical and current data to help the planning of school places can become more efficient and cost-effective.

• More informed decision-making
  • Investment in new building and remodelling in the primary sector programmes can be undertaken with greater confidence.  The impact of take-up in the new Academies and free schools on the maintained sector over time can be modelled.Integrated data
  • The most current and historic numbers on school roll information are combined with imported data from the local health authority, to highlight trends and identify likely future demand for school places
     
• Accurate, flexible modelling
  • Design and run a range of forecasts for individual or multiple catchment areas or from feeder schools, including those that have a staggered intake to reception throughout the year
     
• Analyse variables
  • The impact of negative or positive migration can be measured on either a whole school or cohort by cohort basis
     
• Simplify school-by-school forecasting
  • Children can be easily mapped to catchment areas by age through integration with GIS mapping software to provide accurate and efficient forecasts per school
     
• Prepare date for the surplus places return
  • Using data from POP4 the LA can easily provide the surplus places return

Make the time-consuming and complex quicker and easier

One Population Forecasting reduces the drain on resources usually required to gather, input and analyse data. By reusing information already held within the One database supplemented by health authority data, it saves both time and effort whilst also reducing the need for multiple data entry and the increased risk of error that brings.

One Population Forecasting makes it quicker and easier to create school place forecasts to support school place reviews. It becomes a simpler and more efficient task to calculate where new builds, mergers or closures may be required. It helps assess the impact on budgets, staff numbers and equipment levels to support more informed decision making.

One Population Forecasting:

• Harnesses the data already held to allow authorities to accurately predict school place numbers and analyse trends
• Reduces the time and complexity of population forecasting and provides a robust, accurate prediction of future school place needs
• Enables authorities to make more informed decisions on school development and provides an easier way of identifying future school place needs to allow more considered planning
• Provides authorities with the flexibility to choose different forecast models according to specific authority wide or catchment circumstances
• Allows weighting factors to be adjusted to model alternative forecasts based on local knowledge